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Life, Death and Housing

Every few years the housing market rewrites the rules, and buyers who learned the last set of rules show up unprepared for the new ones. Right now, the rules have changed more than they have at any point in a generation. The buyers who understand that are finding deals. The ones who do not are making expensive mistakes.

In markets where developers managed to bring inventory to market faster than demand absorbed it, prices have pulled back. Several Sun Belt metros that boomed during the pandemic have given back a portion of those gains. But those are the exceptions. Most markets are not working from excess; they are working from scarcity.

Affordability, by the standard measure of what share of median household income goes toward the monthly payment on a median-priced home, is near its worst level since the early 1980s. That is a real problem, and it is not going away quickly. A market can stay unaffordable for longer than most buyers expect to wait. What it means, practically, is that the buyer who can close confidently has more leverage than the headline numbers suggest.

Shop at least three lenders before you commit to one. A 0.25 percent gap between two lenders’ quotes adds up to real money that most buyers leave on the table by taking the first offer they receive. Lender fees vary too. Ask each lender for a Loan Estimate document, which breaks down all costs in a standardized format.

The inspection is where the marketing copy meets reality. Schedule it and attend in person if at all possible. A good home inspector will walk you through what they are finding as they go, and you will learn more about the property in three hours than in any number of showing visits.

Negotiation works best when it is quiet and well-prepared. Before you make an offer, find out how long the listing has been active. A listing that has been relisted after a cancellation is a fundamentally different negotiation than a fresh listing in a neighborhood where homes sell in under a week.

For buyers with a stable income, a down payment of at least ten percent, and a concrete plan to stay in the home for at least five years, this market is more navigable than the headlines suggest. The homes that are priced correctly for current conditions are still moving. They are going to the buyers who treated the process like the major financial decision it is.

Buyers who take the time to research properly tend to find that the market is more navigable than the headlines suggest. Spending twenty minutes with current homes for sale and market analytics is a better use of your time than waiting for conditions that may never arrive.